Sell Nothing. Retire Early. Mission Complete.

What if you could retire in 3 years instead of 10-15? While everyone is trying to trade the market and gamble on poop coins and meme coins, some people are using a little known method to actually earn passive returns. We probably have 3 years to exploit this before the party is over. That's plenty of time to retire early in crypto.

Wealthier Americans are driving retail spending and powering US economy

CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
October 18, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It's a trend that has surprised many: Why, despite being squeezed by high prices, have Americans kept spending at retail stores and restaurants at a robust pace?

One key reason is a relatively simple one: Wealthier consumers, boosted by strong gains in income, home equity and stock market wealth, have increasingly driven the spending.

That trend, documented by Federal Reserve research, represents something of a shift from the pre-pandemic period. And it suggests that consumer spending, the primary driver of the U.S. economy, could help sustain healthy growth this year and next.

Lower-income consumers, by contrast, have been disproportionately squeezed by higher-priced rent, groceries and other necessities, leaving them less able to spend on discretionary items, like electronics, entertainment and restaurant meals, than they were before the pandemic. Though their spending is starting to rebound as inflation-adjusted incomes rise, it could be years before their finances fully recover.

The disparities help explain the gap between gloomy consumer sentiment and widespread evidence of a healthy U.S. economy -- a major dynamic in the presidential race that is now in its final weeks. Only a portion of the American population is fueling most of the growth that is evident in government economic data.

The trends also help illustrate how the economy has managed to keep expanding at a solid pace even though the Federal Reserve, until last month, kept its key interest rate at its highest level in more than two decades. Despite the much higher borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards that resulted from the Fed's rate hikes, inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 3% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. And it increased at a 2.8% annual rate in the April-June quarter, the government said last month.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales in the United States rose 0.4% from August to September, a solid gain that suggested that shoppers are confident enough in the economy to continue spending freely. Restaurant sales jumped 1%, a particularly encouraging sign because it meant that many people felt they could spend on meals outside the home. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta now estimates that the economy grew at a strong 3.4% in the July-September quarter.

Higher-income households have been fortified by huge gains in housing and stock market wealth since the pandemic. Home values have marched steadily up, fueled by high demand and an unusually low supply of houses. And the stock market has been consistently hitting new highs, with the S&P 500 index up a sizzling 22.5% for the year. Roughly 80% of stock market value is owned by the richest 10% of U.S. households.

"It speaks to the ongoing strength of those Americans, which is still carrying overall spending," said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Housing and stock values have soared in particular for the wealthiest one-tenth of Americans over the past four years. The value of their home equity has leapt 70% from the first quarter of 2020 through the second quarter of this year, according to Fed data -- to $17.6 trillion. Their stock and mutual fund wealth has jumped 86%, to just under $37 trillion. Though inflation has eroded some of those gains, they are still quite substantial.

Such sharp growth in wealth has reduced the need for affluent Americans to save from their paychecks while still ramping up their spending. A report last week by Fed economists found that before the pandemic, retail spending had been rising for all income groups at roughly the same pace. But about three years ago, the trend shifted: Upper- and middle-income consumers started spending at a much faster pace than lower-earners.

By August 2024, inflation-adjusted spending on retail goods was nearly 17% higher than it was in January 2018 for upper-income households, defined as those earning more than $100,000. For middle-income households -- earning $60,000 to $100,000 -- their spending rose 13.3% during the same period, the Fed study found. And for those earning less than $60,000, spending has risen just 7.9% since 2018. It actually fell from mid-2021 through mid-2023.

"Middle- and high-income households have been fueling the strong demand for retail goods," Fed economist Sinem Hacioglu Hoke and two colleagues wrote.

Among those who have felt pressure to spend cautiously is Helaine Rapkin, a 69-year-old teacher who was shopping last week at a Kohl's in Ramsey, New Jersey, looking for discounts on athletic wear and gifts for her nephew, niece and daughter. Rapkin said she's wrestling with higher costs on a range of items and isn't feeling the benefits of a dramatically reduced inflation rate.

"I am not feeling good at all," she said. "I can't believe how expensive things have gotten...Clothes or food."

Pearce, in his own research, has found that since the pandemic, lower-income Americans have had to cut their spending on discretionary items. Inflation sharply increased the portion of their income that they had to spend on housing and food, leaving little for other purchases.

As a result, for the lowest-income one-fifth of Americans -- those earning less than $28,000 -- the share of their spending on discretionary items fell 2.5 percentage points by the second quarter of this year compared with 2019. It also declined for the second-lowest one-fifth of households and for the middle fifth. But for the wealthiest one-fifth, the share of their spending on discretionary purchases actually increased.

"This has clearly been a very large shock to households, particularly those at the lower end," Pearce said. "What surprised me is how little has been clawed back."

One sign of the struggles that lower-income consumers have faced is that the proportion of borrowers who are behind on credit cards or auto loans has risen in the past two years to the highest levels in about a decade.

Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard and a nonresident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, suggested, though, that such trends aren't likely to derail the overall economy.

"There are increasing cracks in consumers' spending," she said. "But it's not yet a broader economic story."

Dynan and Pearce say they're optimistic that consumers overall -- including lower-income ones -- will keep spending in the coming months as inflation-adjusted incomes keep rising, restoring more of Americans' purchasing power.

"We're probably past the worst, the most intense pressures on spending from both the inflation shock and from rising interest rates," Pearce said. "Now, I think the outlook is pretty strong."

___

AP Retail Writer Anne D'Innocenzio contributed to this report from New York.

Continue Reading...

Popular

What changes should small businesses be aware of for 2025?

For small businesses, the biggest change in the new year will be the arrival of a presumably more administration in Washington. But there are other shifts owners should keep on their radar.

Millions of people may get expanded Social Security benefits. Who are they and how would it happen?

ATLANTA (AP) — Nearly 3 million people could receive a boost in payments under legislation set for a final Senate vote in the coming days.

Time Magazine's "Armageddon Man" Goes Rogue - Ad

He's worked side-by-side with Warren Buffett, Alan Greenspan, Ron Paul and Jim Rickards... and he's written several #1 best-selling investment books. Now he's sharing the most exciting opportunity of his three-decade-career. Early investors can target up to 10X returns in 2 years from a play NOBODY else is talking about.

Edmunds: The best midsize SUVs for families in 2025

Along with smartphones and streaming subscriptions, the three-row SUV is now a staple of American family life. And since nearly every automaker sells one, choosing the right one can feel overwhelming.

What's Going On With Broadcom Stock?

Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) shares are trading lower Wednesday, pulling back from a recent surge that saw the stock join the $1 trillion club. Here's a look at what you need to know.

How a Tiny 1% Use a Secret Whale CashFlow Strategy That Pays in Down Markets - Ad

How do you beat the market and earn while everyone else loses? You get paid without trading it. It's true. Using a legit "loophole" that only 1% of people in crypto even know about, you can actually get paid when other people trade.

Miami judge approves bail for wealthy Alexander twins in state rape case

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — A judge in Miami granted bail Friday to a prominent real estate broker and his twin brother, who are facing . However, they won't be released from custody while facing a separate federal sex trafficking case with another brother.

Media Humiliated: Demo of Elon's Tech Proves They're Wrong - Ad

It's smaller than a quarter, but it could power Elon Musk's next AI revolution... A revolution he believes will be worth more than $9 trillion. Believe it or not, this device could even help put an extra $30k in your pocket every year outside of the markets.

Youngkin proposes tax relief on tips and cars in his adjusted Virginia budget plan

RICHMOND (AP) — Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin proposed a state budget plan on Wednesday to provide tax relief on tips and cars, measures his Republican administration touted as giving money back to middle- and lower-income workers.

Dogecoin Poised For 85% Surge As Whales Accumulate 130 Billion DOGE

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) is hinting at a possible price surge in the wake of its remarkable rally.

Did You See Trump's Bombshell Exec. Order 001? - Ad

Biden broke it... Now Trump is going to fix it. Starting with "Exec. Order 001." It's a bombshell law that Trump could sign within minutes of stepping into the Oval Office... And it will instantly set off the most sweeping government technology project in 80 years... The most lucrative, too...

IRS recovers $4.7 billion in back taxes and braces for cuts with Trump and GOP in power

WASHINGTON (AP) — IRS leadership on Thursday announced that the agency has recovered $4.7 billion in back taxes and proceeds from a variety of crimes since the nation's tax collector received a massive glut of funding through in 2022.

MacKenzie Scott gives rare third gift to medical debt relief group

MacKenzie Scott continues to make medical debt relief a priority in her mysterious giving.

Trump's Legacy-Defining Moment to Strike - Ad

Elon Musk predicts historic crisis in first year of Trump's presidency. but the surprising way trump solves it could cement his legacy.

Why Joby Aviation Stock Is Falling After Hours

Joby Aviation shares are falling in extended trading Tuesday after the company announced it entered into an equity distribution agreement.

Biden calls for ban on congressional stock trading

WASHINGTON (AP) — President endorsed a ban on congressional stock trading in an interview that’s being released this week, belatedly weighing in on an issue that has been debated on Capitol Hill for years.

Wall St Legend: Buy This Stock Before Inauguration - Ad

This is the best election year for stocks since 1936. But according to one 50-year insider, not everything is as rosy as it seems on Wall Street...

How to avoid financial stress during the holiday season

NEW YORK (AP) — The holidays are meant to be a time of celebration with family and friends. But they can also bring pressure to spend money on gifts, gatherings and plane tickets home, exacerbated by , social media influencers and family expectations.

New Jersey targets plastic packaging that fills landfills and pollutes

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — New Jersey is aiming to drastically reduce the amount of packaging material — particularly plastic — that is thrown away after the package is opened.

Buffett, Bloomberg, & 48 Congress Members Are Buying 1 Sector - Ad

Why are Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg, "The Walmart Family", Bill Gates, and 48 members of Congress shifting their stocks in a frenzy? And why are they all piling into ONE unique corner of the market... The last time we saw the world's wealthiest investors move their cash into this corner of the market, Stocks exploded 2,020%, 5,609% Even as high as 8,437% in just ONE year. Now, it's all happening again.

What's Going On With Portage Biotech Shares Tuesday?

Portage Biotech stock is trading higher after the company announced it signed a letter of intent with Immunova for the potential sale of its subsidiary.

Do NOT Buy Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, or ANY Major Tech Stock... - Ad

31 billionaires (including: Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and more) are quietly unloading shares of their OWN stocks at RECORD pace... But why? Wall Street legend Eric Fry says it's because, soon: "America's most popular stocks like Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Tesla, and thousands more... are set to come plummeting back to Earth." Erasing YEARS of investor profits... Sparking a $17 trillion PANIC on Wall Street...

How to bridge a retirement shortfall

If you want to get yourself thoroughly depressed, spend a little time looking at statistics about Americans’ retirement preparedness.

Nissan Stock Soar Over 20% On Merger Talks With Honda, Mitsubishi Spikes

Nissan Motor Co. shares surged 22.54% on Wednesday after the reports of merger talks with Honda Motor Co. Honda's stock slipped 2% amid broader market declines, with the Nikkei 225 index closing down 0.55%.

Is This Defi Coin Your Next "10-Bagger" Investment? - Ad

Our #1 pick in decentralized finance is largely overlooked by mainstream investors (for now). This governance token could skyrocket as DeFi adoption surges with the smart money and institutions.

EPA awards $144 million to California to phase out big diesel trucks

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — The Environmental Protection Agency is awarding $144 million in grants to fund 13 projects in California to help the state wean off fossil fuels and phase out big rigs that run on diesel.

BMW Takes Down Appreciation For Tesla FSD, Dashing Hopes Of A Licensing Deal With The EV Giant: Elon Musk Says 'Too Bad'

German automaker BMW on Wednesday took down its appreciation for Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) driver assistance system without an explanation, merely hours after posting it on X.

Wall St. Icon: "If You Wait On This, It Will Already Be Too Late" - Ad

If you have a significant amount of money in the stock market right now -- or if you're sitting on the sidelines waiting to make a move -- you DO NOT want to miss my latest research. My goal is to get as many people as I can in front of what's coming. If you wait until your hand is forced, it will already be too late. You absolutely MUST get on the right side of this thing.

Wall Street Veteran Slams Fed's Rate Cut Plans: 'Wake Up To Economic Realities'

Ed Yardeni warns Fed against further rate cuts due to risks of overheating economy and stock market euphoria, while data shows high inflation and strong labor market.

As data centers proliferate, conflict with local communities follows

ALEXANDRIA, Va. (AP) — Richard Andre Newman thought he would live the rest of his life in his quiet, leafy neighborhood in suburban . He was born and raised in Bren Mar Park, where children ride their bikes and neighbors wave hello.

Elon Musk: "The Government Is Out of Control." - Ad

Elon Musk says the government is going bankrupt. Seniors are getting crushed by inflation. But there is a way you could claim a chunk of over $1 trillion in spending, courtesy of Elon Musk.

Jim Cramer Warns Nvidia's 'Vicious' And 'Fast' Reversal Is Coming Amid 174% Surge This Year And China Antitrust Probe

Jim Cramer cautioned investors about Nvidia Corp on Monday, predicting a potential market correction for the semiconductor giant that has seen its value surge 174% this year.

A Strange Twist Is About to Hit the AI Market That Almost Nobody Sees Coming... - Ad

If you have any money in AI stocks right now, or if you're even thinking about it, you need to see what's going on. The truth is, the moves we've seen in tech and AI stocks over the last couple of months could be the start of something much bigger. That's why I've put together this special presentation with Wall Street legend, Charles Mizrahi.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse Admits $204M Crypto Super PAC Wouldn't Exist If Gary Gensler Wasn't The SEC Chair

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said on Sunday that the establishment of Fairshake, a cryptocurrency-focused super political action committee, was a direct response to the SEC’s approach toward the industry under Gary Gensler.

Canada's finance minister resigns as unpopular Trudeau faces biggest test of his political career

TORONTO (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces the biggest test of his political career after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, long one of his most powerful and loyal ministers, announced Monday that she was resigning from the Cabinet.

Scary Accurate AI Money Map Shows Strange Twist Coming for the Market - Ad

Over the last 5 years, this "scary accurate" AI Money Map has helped investors get in on the right stocks, at the right time -- during this AI revolution... Now it shows a strange twist is coming for the AI market that almost nobody sees coming... And worse still, no one's being warned about.

Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to change his family’s trust over Fox News media empire control rejected

RENO, Nev. (AP) — A probate commissioner has ruled against Rupert Murdoch’s effort to change his family’s trust to give one of his sons control of his media empire and ensure Fox News maintains its conservative editorial slant, according to a sealed document obtained by The New York Times.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright activatrade.ca
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service