Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has argued that an ‘altcoin season‘ has failed to materialize due to monetary policy, liquidity and stubborn Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dominance.
What Happened: In a podcast published on June 28, Cowen stated, "Altseason has not happened yet."
According to Cowen, a sharp drop in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dominance and a relative surge in altcoin performance -- the conditions that typically fuel altcoin rallies in coins like Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), XRP CRYPTO: XRP), and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) -- aren’t present.
"If you only followed Crypto Twitter, you’d think we're already in our 700th alt season," Cowen joked. "But the data tells a very different story."
Reviewing historical trends, Cowen noted that true altseasons in 2017 and late 2020 to early 2021 followed clear collapses in Bitcoin dominance, allowing altcoins to outperform BTC on a relative basis.
"That hasn't happened this cycle. In fact, Bitcoin has continued to dominate," he said, referring to this phase as a persistent ';Bitcoin Season.'
Cowen highlighted that before the last two major alt runs, altcoin-to-Bitcoin valuations dropped to roughly 25% of BTC’s market cap.
“We’re nowhere near those levels now,” he explained, suggesting that a reset to those lows might be necessary to "rip the band-aid off" and set the stage for a true altcoin cycle.
Also Read: Bitcoin’s ‘Perfect Storm’ Could Extend Bull Run Into 2026: Report
Why It Matters: Cowen pointed to broader macroeconomic headwinds as the key suppressors of altcoin momentum.
"We're still in a period of quantitative tightening, and the Fed is holding off on rate cuts," he explained.
"Jerome Powell even acknowledged they're concerned about inflation risk from tariffs, which keeps the door shut on easing."
Historically, major altcoin rallies have aligned with aggressive rate cuts and liquidity injections, monetary easing that allowed speculative assets to flourish.
Without that tailwind, Cowen believes altcoins are more likely to bleed lower through September to November, echoing patterns seen in prior cycles.
What's Next: According to Cowen, the setup for altcoins could improve only after a meaningful shift in U.S. monetary policy, especially if the Federal Reserve pivots to rate cuts or renewed liquidity support.
Until then, Cowen advises caution: "You probably would have outperformed most of the altcoin market by simply staying Bitcoin-heavy this year."
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