Famed data analyst Nate Silver‘s election forecast shows Kamala Harris with a better chance of winning the presidency than Donald Trump for the first time since August 28.
What Happened: According to his Silver Bulletin site, Silver says the race is still up in the air, and the lead could potentially change again due to the forecast being so close to a 50/50 split.
“Harris is technically the favorite in the model for the first time since Aug. 28 — but the race is a toss-up,” Silver wrote. He currently gives Harris a 52 percent chance of victory. FiveThirtyEight, founded by but no longer affiliated with Silver, uses a different model that shows Harris with a 60 percent chance of defeating Trump.
Also Read: Trump Vs Harris: New Poll Reveals Post-Debate Swing Towards This Candidate In Key State
Despite Harris’ perceived victory in the presidential debate, Silver’s model indicates that neither candidate lost or gained much support.
However, Harris did experience a slight increase in support around August 23, following her official nomination as the party’s candidate at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, reports Business Insider.
Also Read: Trump Vs. Harris: Tense Standoff In Nail-Biter Polls
In crucial swing states, Silver’s model shows Harris leading in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Minnesota, while Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s poll aggregation also shows Harris leading Trump nationally by a 3.6 percentage point margin. However, Silver warned that neither side should be overly confident as “stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning.”
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Why It Matters: The fluctuating leads in the election forecast underscore the unpredictable nature of the race.
The fact that Harris has managed to surpass Trump for the first time since August indicates a potential shift in voter sentiment. However, with the race being so close, it’s clear that the outcome is far from decided.
As the election draws nearer, the focus on key swing states will intensify. The leads that Harris and Trump hold in these states could ultimately determine the election’s outcome.
Therefore, the candidates’ strategies in these states will be crucial in the coming weeks.
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This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
