President Joe Biden is currently slightly ahead of his predecessor, Donald Trump, according to several opinion polls, with new results released on Monday showing an increase in his job approval rating.
What Happened: About 41% of registered voters expressed approval of Biden’s handling of the economy, according to a poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan‘s Ross School of Business.
This marks a five-point increase from the March poll and represents the highest approval rating since the FT-Michigan began asking the question in November, as reported by FT.
The poll, conducted online by Democratic strategists Global Strategy Group and Republican polling firm North Star Opinion Research between April 4-8, questioned 1,010 registered voters nationwide for the purpose. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
However, the poll found concerns over inflation, including rising fuel prices, which could potentially impact his re-election bid.
Biden’s overall job approval rating also improved by four points to 43%, which is a record since the monthly poll began.
The poll also indicated an improvement in the president’s standing among demographics such as young voters, independents, Black, and Hispanic voters compared to the March poll. However, the report also highlighted warning signs for the president. Forty-one percent of voters trusted Trump on the economy compared to a more modest 35% who trusted his successor, while 16% said they trusted neither.
Inflation continued to be a cause of concern for voters, with about four in five stating that price increases were one of their biggest sources of financial stress. Voters also expressed concerns about rising food and energy prices.
“Voters worry as much about inflation as they ever did, but they blame Mr Biden less,” said Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business. “Mr Biden's recent, more strident accusations that greedy corporations are responsible for price increases seem to have won him points.”
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Why It’s Important: A March Gallup poll also showed a modest improvement in job approval rating for Biden. His job approval rating was at 40% in March, an improvement from the 38% reading seen in February.
Gallup's comparison of Biden's fourth-year job approval rating with past presidents revealed him trailing behind each of them.
The pollster underlined a litmus test to assess the electoral chances of the president. “Each passing month that Biden’s approval rating hovers near 40% puts him in an increasingly vulnerable position electorally. Historically, incumbents seeking reelection with approval ratings under 50% just before the election have been defeated,” it said.
The FT-Michigan Ross poll suggests that the president may be slowly and steadily inching toward the 50% cut-off mark. A lot depends on how the president manages the economy and people’s expectations between now and November.
After a pullback from the June 2022 highs, inflation was on a sustainable downward path before rising again since the start of this year. This has kept Federal Reserve rate cuts on hold. Americans may also closely watch how Biden handles the renewed tensions in the Middle East. He has faced criticism for his handling of the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflicts. Immigration is another issue that could polarize people, potentially away from him.
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