Well, that was quite the performance by the stock market this past week. The SPX 500 is now up 2.65% for the month of August, but what makes that most impressive is the index has only been up three times in ten sessions. Incredibly, the SPX 500 has been red for seven sessions, which tells us the market has been driven by only three sessions. Incredible, indeed. This is not normal activity of course, and really starts to get the bulls worked up in a frenzy.
After reaching some deep oversold levels only two months ago, it seems the bulls have regained control of the market, or so it seems. These last few weeks have shown some impressive characteristics: low put/call ratios, strong breadth, strong volume trends, positive money flows and shifting sentiment and price breakouts. This combination had been missing from prior moves up in May and March. So, is this IT? Is the bear dead?
Not so fast, but we may have an answer sooner rather than later. There is a collision that is about to occur, and we'll have answers after the event. The big downtrend line that comes in from the start of 2022 has held on a couple of occasions so far in 2022, and now it's coming for a 'test'. The price action has come fast and furious, this one downtrend line is one to tell us whether or not we can consider the market moderately bullish. I won't make any guesses here, but will start trading appropriately when we have our answer.
Why would the bull market not be starting? We look at the MACD on the monthly chart and for a crossover and confirmation. When that happens to the upside we'll have a new bull market. I think most of us are weary and tired of this bear market and want it to be over. It can be once the price action makes the right move and follows through, a tough task but one that can be proven - maybe within a few short days.
